Duncan Artus
Articles by Duncan Artus
2024: What will the election year hold?
From macroeconomic decisions to political outcomes, markets – and sentiment – can be temporarily influenced by various external factors. If 2023 will be...
How to be a little less wrong – with James Aitken
When it comes to investing, marginal improvements can make a significant difference to investment returns over time. In conversation with Allan Gray’s chief...
Personal reflections on what makes a great asset manager over the long term
Given that we are in our 50th year of existence, Duncan Artus, who has been working at Allan Gray for over 22 years, reflects on what he believes makes a gre...
Taking stock of our stewardship efforts
At Allan Gray, we aim to be a great asset manager that integrates ESG well in our approach and decision-making, rather than an ESG-focused company that manag...
Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead?
In his first investment update of 2023, Duncan Artus discusses the current investment context and how it differs from the past, shares a review of 2022 and...
Investment update: How to invest in a changing world
At Allan Gray we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. During the recent...
How to invest in an inflationary, energy-short and increasingly divided world
At Allan Gray, we are bottom-up investors, but we want to be on the right side of long-term trends, particularly at secular turning points. One way is to...
Local investment update: Always pay the right price
Jacques Plaut and Duncan Artus discuss the positioning of our equity and multi-asset funds given the pre-existing trends exacerbated by the war in Ukraine....
Preparing for more uncertainty and volatility
A look back over the last two years reveals how difficult forecasting is. Even with perfect foresight of the pandemic context, one would not have been able t...
Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
At a recent Allan Gray local investment update, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, facilitated a robust discussion with portfolio managers, Thalia...
How to invest for the possibility of higher inflation and interest rates
The probability that the world is moving into an environment of higher inflation is increasing. An inflationary environment requires investors to think...
Active management: Potential for a comeback in a divided inflationary world
For most of the 2000s, the developed world has been characterised by disinflation and falling interest rates. This is despite a large increase in leverage, t...
Market update: Weighing up opportunity and risk in the face of volatility
While the local market has been strong, South African assets still look cheap overall compared to many of their global counterparts. There is opportunity in...
Investment update: Taking advantage of disparities in the market
One of the key preconditions for successful active management is the level of disparity in the markets. Duncan Artus discusses this in our first video and...
Allan Gray Stable Fund turns 20
Over the last two decades, the Allan Gray Stable Fund has built a solid track record through dynamic asset allocation, bottom-up stock-picking and mindful ri...
Equity Fund update: In pursuit of potential
The most important determinant of investment success is the price you pay for an asset, and valuations for many quality companies are the cheapest they have...
COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update
During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...
Investing during lockdown and beyond
Sometimes in investing, the best thing to do is nothing. In a presentation to advisers and clients via Zoom webinar, Duncan Artus examined the levels and...
COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity
We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...
Two decades for the Allan Gray Balanced Fund
The Allan Gray Balanced Fund celebrated its 20-year anniversary on 1 October 2019. The local industry looks vastly different today to how it looked two decad...
Q&A: Understanding Orbis’ performance and potential
Market breadth has been very narrow offshore, with few winners and many losers. Among the losers have been emerging markets and select cyclicals. At the same...
Negativity can often present opportunity
With doom and gloom pervading locally, and the world economy slowing, you may be feeling like the safest place for your money is under your mattress. This is...
Is it 2002 all over again? Not quite
Domestically focused shares that are exposed to the local economy have underperformed the overall market. Duncan Artus investigates whether the current...
The dash for cash
The end of the calendar year often leads to reflection on how one’s investments have performed. Many savers are questioning the wisdom of investing in South...
The year of payback
Excess returns from the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) relative to cash have disappointed over the last five years, with cash now outperforming, on average....
A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets
Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...
How to spot investment red flags
South Africa has been rocked by a series of corporate scandals in recent years that have sent the share prices of former blue-chip companies like Steinhoff a...
Structural challenges to business models
At the core of our investment philosophy we look for companies we believe are priced below our estimate of their true worth and sell them when they reach fai...
Are you overly exposed to China?
As South African investors we are very tuned into the local political and economic risks that we face. But what about the less obvious risks?
Equity Fund update: Focus turns to locally listed international businesses
The market had a volatile first quarter with positive sentiment towards South African equities continuing against a backdrop of volatile international market...
How are our portfolios positioned to protect and grow our clients' capital?
Regular readers of our commentaries would have noted that we have found an increasing number of attractive opportunities in local equities over the last 18...
Balanced Fund update: An increased weighting towards local stocks
The local equity market had a strong quarter, breaking out to new highs despite all the negative news headlines. Many investors forget that the FTSE/JSE All...
Equity Fund update: Investing in the shade of unnerving political headlines
The year 2016 will be remembered by investors as one in which politics dominated the headlines. But what do we make of it all as investors trying to focus on...
What to focus on when choosing shares and other assets
How do you distinguish a good investment from a lemon? And how do you create a well-diversified portfolio? Listen to this 15-minute interview on PowerFM...
Restructurings as a source of excess returns
We are always on the lookout for opportunities offered by the potential restructuring of companies. They can often generate attractive returns with a...
Managing portfolios in times of uncertainty
My inbox is filling up with commentary about the impact of Brexit. Some of the commentary is of debatable long-term value and with news of this nature it tak...
Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls
Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .
Changing the odds
Sun International, South Africa's second largest casino and resort operator, is undergoing significant change after a number of years of underperformance....
A simple checklist for domestic asset allocation
I recently read the fascinating book ‘The Success Equation: Untangling luck in Business, Sports and Investing’1, which explores, how much of one’s success or...
The nature of contrarian investing
The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...
The trend is your friend till it bends at the end
For some time we have been concerned about the sustainability and unbalanced nature of consumption growth in South Africa. I don’t believe you can consume,...
Insurance: better than you think
We have previously set out the reasons Sanlam has an above-benchmark position in our clients’ portfolios (see Quarterly Commentary 1, 2010). On a...
Can the level of interest rates be used to reliably predict investment returns?
Local and global short-term interest rates are at low levels. This has led to questions about the rationale for holding cash both locally and offshore. We ha...
Happy equilibrium
Duncan Artus discusses the implications of the growth in the local asset management industry being focused on asset managers who variously describe their...
Another view
Governments around the world are engaged in significant fiscal and monetary stimulus. But there is some doubt about whether their efforts will improve the re...
